8 Trends in China 2013 to Keep an Eye On

Happy New (Western) Year to you all!

Article below for those interested in predictions for China's development next year.

By BILL BISHOP

from NY Times, Dec 12, 2012.

Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

 WELL WIRED The number of Internet users in China is expected to pass 600 million in 2013.

The Bo Xilai scandal, an economic downturn and the leadership switch from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping made 2012 one of China’s most eventful years. It is hard to imagine that next year will be as exciting, but there will be change.
Here are eight likely trends for 2013:

SHIFT IN GROWTH The economy is rebounding after slowing sharply through the first three quarters of 2012. The recovery is mostly stimulus-driven and heavily weighted toward state-owned enterprises and large industrial companies. The 2013 official target for economic growth is expected to be set at 7.5 percent. The economy should meet it, although excessive debt, a bloated state sector, entrenched special interests, income disparity, rural-urban inequality and lagging corporate profits will remain problems. Expect increased emphasis on the quality of growth, urbanization and rural reform as well as some painful progress in rebalancing from overinvestment to consumption-driven growth.

NEW LEADER Xi Jinping has moved quickly in his first three weeks to project an image of change. The government faces a growing expectations gap with its citizens and needs to rebuild public confidence. Mr. Xi is talking a lot about the Chinese dream and the “great renewal of the Chinese nation” — nationalist concepts with significant appeal. Mr. Xi’s choice of Shenzhen for his first domestic inspection trip is a symbolic tribute to Deng Xiaoping’s 1992 southern tour that restarted reforms after 1989. Mr. Xi’s visit is most likely a signal that he is serious about pushing forward with changes. Expect renewed energy around overhauls, primarily economic and administrative but possibly some political ones.

Vincent Yu/Associated Press

CORRUPTION FOE Xi Jinping, China’s new party leader, has promised to be vigilant against graft.

CRACKDOWN ON CORRUPTION The new leadership has begun a public crackdown on corruption. One relatively senior official and several minor officials have already fallen. Internet exposés brought down the minor officials, but there are reports that the Communist Party’s central disciplinary inspection commission has started new investigations into money laundering through Macau. Expect this antigraft campaign to ensnare more senior officials and to be the most effective in recent memory, yet ultimately stop short of addressing the systemic issues that have allowed corruption to flourish.
TROUBLE WITH THE NEIGHBORS China’s external environment is increasingly complex. Mr. Xi is likely to work hard on maintaining stable relations with the United States, while at the same time expanding China’s military capabilities and asserting its regional interests. China has unsettled its neighbors with its approach to the disputes over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and the various islands in the South China Sea. Both issues look intractable, so a solution is unlikely in 2013. Expect a quickening arms race in Asia, increasingly nationalist rhetoric, continued tensions with Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines and growing risks of misunderstandings — and possible mishaps — as the various countries send more vessels into the disputed areas.
NOT EASY BEING GREEN China has some of the worst environmental problems in the world, and they increasingly pose a threat to social stability. The leadership is aware of the problems, and the report from the 18th Communist Party Congress included a section calling for improving the environment. Expect increased emphasis on clean energy, conservation and green growth, though the challenges are so huge that it is hard to be optimistic.
RISING ACTIVISM Environmental issues are leading to political activism. In 2012 China had several not-in-my-backyard protests involving thousands of people, many of whom mobilized online. Social media use, especially via smartphones, is rapidly expanding from urban to rural users and is making it much harder to cover up problems. The government now requires that all major industrial projects pass a social risk assessment before they begin. Expect more environmental protests as citizens become more aware of their rights and are emboldened to protect them.
INTERNET PRESSURE China has the most Internet users in the world. At some point in 2013 its population on the Internet will exceed 600 million people. China has a sophisticated Internet censorship and filtering system that is unlikely to disappear. But that does not mean the Internet will not pressure the government. Cheap smartphones with good cameras and 3G connectivity are proliferating, in large part thanks to Google’s Android mobile operating system.
China is expected to have several hundred million smartphone users by the end of 2013. The Internet is unlikely to bring change to the system, certainly. But all those smartphone-wielding, social media-savvy citizens will force a more accountable authoritarianism. Expect more scandals to break online and increasingly responsive, accountable government at all levels.
OVERSEAS INVESTMENT Chinese companies are going global, by expanding their operations overseas and by acquiring foreign firms. Yet Chinese investment is a contentious issue in the United States and other developed countries, and several deals failed in 2012 at the hands of regulators. Huawei, a Chinese networking and telecommunications giant, is effectively blocked from doing business in the United States because of security concerns.
Regardless, Chinese companies will continue to invest overseas, both to increase and to secure resources. Tencent, for one, is on the verge of becoming China’s first globally competitive Internet company.
Its WeChat mobile social networking application already has more than 200 million users and may give Facebook a run for its money in many developing countries. Expect growing overseas investment, increasing political scrutiny of Chinese deals and possibly invitations to WeChat from your social networking friends.
All in all, Mr. Xi appears to be a change-oriented nationalist. His energetic and straightforward style, his apparent commitment to fighting corruption and his determination to reinvigorate at least economic reform should buy the government time to tackle some of China’s difficult problems in 2013.

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Bill Bishop publishes the daily Sinocism China Newsletter from Beijing. You can follow him on Twitter @niubi and Sina Weibo @billbishop. 

Huangshan Mountain

There are many places in China that are interesting to spend a few days in remote areas.  One of the best ones I know is Huangshan mountain in southeast China.  A cable car is needed to get up on the mountain although avid hikers do climb it.  There are many hiking paths across the top of the mountain and wonderful small hotels scattered here and there.  One of the favorite things people enjoy doing is getting up early in the morning to watch the sun come up as well as a setting sun in the evening.  For those cool nights or mornings many hotels furnish warm jackets for you to wear.  It is a favorite honeymoon spot too.  Note the many locks attached to the chain barrier.  It is the custom for young couples to bring a lock and two keys on their honeymoon.  They make a pact to stay together the rest of their lives, putting the lock onto the chain and then each throws a key over the edge.  A wonderful custom and you will see thousands of locks just like this.

It should be noted however that hotels on the mountain are very expensive as it is a National Park and hotels are owned by the government.  For more interesting places to visit contact us at  interlak@eskimo.com   Our 25 years travel experience can help you find those special places like Huashan mountain near Xian too.  Check our web site at  www.interlakechinatours.com   

Shaoling Temple Monks

For those interested in Kung Fu, the best place to visit is the Shaoling Temple in the countryside between

Luoyang and Zhengzhou.  This is the home of the famous Shaoling Monks known for the ancient art of KungFu.   It has become a bit touristy in the later years since it is so popular and well known, but still it is the Mecca of KungFu.  Besides seeing the Monks at prayer chanting you will be able to visit the several temples there and the building where they have a demonstration of their Kungfu abilities.  Here you see one of the leading monks with a bowl being held by the Monk's stomach muscle.   He challenges anyone present to try and remove it from him.  As I was the only foreigner that day, everyone wanted me to try and do it.  I observed that he was perspiring a bit so knew that his skin would be moist and that perhaps rather than try to pull it off, I could twist it until his skin actually released it.  That indeed is what happened to the astonishment of the people and the other monks as it had never been done before.  I still have the bowl as he presented it to me in humility and bowing.  Click on the photos for full screen viewing.  

A RED PANDA?

Would you believe a Red Panda?  Yes, there is a very rare Red Panda shown here along with a black and white Panda that we are all familiar with for years.  The Red Panda looks like a raccoon but acts just like the Panda it is with their Panda walk toes pointed inward a bit.  You can see these at the Chengdu Panda Experiment Station just outside of Chengdu in a modern up to date facility.  After the earthquake a few years ago the Panda Preserve was destroyed; however it is being rebuilt and should be ready for visitors in 2013 or early 2014.   Pandas are China and I have many requests from clients to visit the home of Chinese Pandas each year.   I try to coordinate a trip to Chengdu as there are many other interesting sites in Sichuan province too like the Leshan Buddha, Juizhaigou National Park, and what I like to call the Real China with so many interesting villages, towns and mountains with Tibetan people living there.  

Weifang Kite Festival

Many people ask me to try and put one Festival into their itineraries when I help plan their tours.  This isn't always easy to coordinate dates with a Festival as they sometimes change dates each year.  One of those that doesn't and I like very much is the International  Weifang Kite Festival held the same days every year at the end of April.  Weifang is south of Beijing and has one flight a day but excellent train service.  Here is a photo of the International Kite Museum in which one of my kites is on display.  I flew my kite on the Flying Field during the Festival and they have it on display at the Museum.   Weifang is where Chinese kites were first flown several hundred years ago.  They still make kites there by hand which you may buy not far from the original Flying Field where kites were first flown.  The Opening to the Festival is held in a stadium with a performance lasting two hours and a closing Fireworks Show like you have never seen before.  The next day Kite enthusiasts from all over the world fly kites on the Flying Field usually hand made by clubs with some as big as a bus and of course a long Dragon Kite as long as a football field.   Among the many festivals in China this is one of my favorites.  You might Google it for more details or contact me at interlak@eskimo.com

Another Market in the grounds of a Temple

Everyone knows about the Panjiayuan Market (see blog Nov 2010), but there is a smaller market which is also interesting and less touristy, Baoguosi Market.  The best day to go is Thursdays.

Now it may look as if you're going in to another temple (oh no not another one, I can hear some of you say!), and you would be right, but the grounds have been taken over by many, many sellers of all sorts of "antiques".

It's best to go as early in the morning as you can. If you haven't had breakfast you can join the other keen buyers for some noodles .....

....or the famous "jian bing", a kind of freshly made pancake Chinese style.

 

Once you're inside you'll see all kinds of things on sale, some very cheap like the lucky dip items below.

 

It's not as crowded as Panjiayuan but smaller in size.

 

and the temple buildings and trees make a nice environment for strolling around.

 There was only one foreign tourist the day I went, and that was a client of mine!

We  met a familiar person greeting us....

he was all over the place....the poster reads Long Live Chairman Mao!

 

The old red badges are now collectors' items, and come in all shapes and sizes.

 

 

This one is big enough to fit on your mantelpiece.

 Then there are some more valuable items such as this cloisonne clock.

 How do you like this old locomotive which acts as clock, barometer and temperature gauge?

 Not quite sure what these animals are, probably a pair of Chinese dragons.

 Another unusual clock!

And finally definitely not an antique.....can you see what it is?...yes, a model of London sights in honour of the 2012 Olympics.

There's still time to come and do some Christmas Shopping!

Season's Greetings to you all and your families, talk again next year!

Tea Houses of China

I love to visit Chinese Tea Houses especially if they are unique and different than the modern ones.  Here is the 270 year old Tea House on the Crooked Bridge leading into the Yu Garden in Shanghai.   Be sure to stop in and check it out.  Tea is not inexpensive but worth the time to absorb the atmosphere of a traditional old tea house.  For something different you might try the special "Tea Balls" in different flavors.  About the size of a large marble they are dropped into hot water and slowly open up to become a beautiful flower in your glass cup.  The tea is good too.  Another tea house I like is the QianTang Cha Ren in Suzhou outside of Shanghai.   It is very traditional with many antiques and you may sit on the floor in your own private room if you like also.  Many snacks are served with tea that you order yourselves.  The atmosphere is very special as well and you feel like you are in old China.  China is famous for tea and Suzhou is the Tea capital besides Hangzhou.  The say a gift of tea is a "Gift of Life".   I hope you find a special tea house too when you visit China.  Click on the photo for a full screen size view.

Pandas in China

Wolong Panda Preserve was destroyed by a a very large earthquake 7 years ago.  They are rebuilding it but the latest information has it that it will not be completed until late 2014.  Meanwhile it is fortunate that the Panda Experiment Station was updated just shortly before that and is located just outside of Chengdu in Sichuan province.  The photo here is of me at Wolong just before the earthquake playing with 2 year old Pandas.  At the Experiment Station you can have your photo taken with a young Panda with a donation of about $100. for a few minutes to handle if you are able and to have photos taken with them.  They do have large claws however they are like playing with young children who squirm and have a bounty of Energy.  It is best to visit the Pandas in the mornings as they usually sleep all afternoon and are less active.

For more information on visiting the Pandas, contact me at  interlak@eskimo.com    I own Interlake China Tours Inc. of Seattle and have worked in China for the past 25 years in the tour business doing private personal or private group tours to your specific interests. Our web site is www.interlakechinatours.com
Click on the photo for a full screen view.